Deterrence vs. Preemption:

Assessing U.S. Nuclear Policy

by

Stephen I. Schwartz

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Since coming into office in 2001, the Bush administration has enacted a series of controversial policies designed to create a more robust and more usable nuclear arsenal. From requiring new nuclear strike capabilities (including against non-nuclear countries), to threatening preemptive attacks, to investing billions of dollars in rebuilding the nuclear weapons production complex, the administration is systematically strengthening the role nuclear weapons play in defending the United States and its interests around the world. This presentation examines those policies and the thinking that underlies them. It questions the effectiveness of the administration’s approach and explores some of the unintended consequences vis-à-vis U.S. policy toward North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan, and others. Finally, it takes a detailed look at current efforts to develop a new low-yield earth-penetrating nuclear weapon to destroy hardened underground facilities, assessing the feasibility of such a device and the potential effects of its use.